Memo 1: Climate Change and Paris Agreement
To: POL245: American Foreign Policy
From: Kelsea Albertson, Dan Curran, Talia Guglietta, Samantha Landry, and Kennedy Muise
Date: February 24, 2019
RE: Climate Change and Paris Agreement
Executive Summary
The Paris Agreement is an environmental accord created in 2015 to address climate change and its negative impacts. The purpose of the agreement is to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in an effort to limit the global temperature increase in this century to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels while limiting the increase to 1.5 degrees. The make-up of the agreement requires commitment from the major emitting countries to cut their climate-altering pollution. The pact also requires developed nations to assist developing nations in their climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. By doing so, it creates a framework for transparent monitoring, reporting, and ratcheting up of countries’ individual and collective climate goals. Currently, 195 countries are committed to the pact. The last country to join is Syria. There are 179 countries (including the US for now) that have formally approved the pact. The only countries that have not joined are Russia, Turkey, and Iran.
Originally, President Obama formally entered the agreement in 2016 because it did not impose any new legal obligations on the US. This is because the US already had a number of laws trying to cut the carbon footprint. However, when President Trump was elected, he withdrew the US from the agreement in June of 2017. Trump is a climate denier and claims that climate change is a “hoax” designed by China. However, pulling out of the agreement is not as simple as Trump believes because the country has to formally be in the agreement for 3 years before they can drop out. Then, after formally announcing the intent to withdraw, that same country has to wait 1 year for the withdrawal process can be complete. This means the earliest date that US can drop out of the agreement is November 4th, 2020; the day after the presidential election.
Although Trump seeks removal from the agreement, the US has continued to participate as mandated by the UN. Also, thousands of American leaders have stepped up to fill the void of executive leadership thus showing Americans nationwide support for the Paris agreement and what it represents. Citizens have participated in many initiatives like America’s Pledge, the United States Climate Alliance, We Are Still In, and the American Cities Climate Challenge to show their support even though their current president wants no part in the agreement.
Risks of Climate Change
The Paris Agreement is a conference built upon previous meetings and agreements including the negotiations at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 and the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. The Paris agreement specifically asks countries to further increase their attention on climate change practices, aiming to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in limiting the global temperature increase by 2 degrees Celsius. Each of the 197 countries are asked to cut ‘climate-altering pollution’ while creating emission targets. Every five years, these targets are reevaluated as stronger requirements are progressively placed on countries. If the targets are not met, there are no repercussions, however, countries are given framework for monitoring and reporting of these goals. Developed nations are asked to help developing nations control their emission output, all countries are asked to limit their global temperature increase by lowering greenhouse gas emissions, and to provide framework for accountability as well as achievements for ambitious targets. This Paris Agreement is crucial; with the temperature increase of 2 degrees Celsius, it is expected for sea levels to rise, extreme temperatures to occur, exceedingly often droughts and floods, and countries at sea level to disappear. Ignoring these issues would give rise to a multitude of health and monetary costs, and in the grand scheme of things, paying for the cost of lowered emissions is significantly less than dealing with the above repercussions.
U.S. Potential Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement
The United States signed into the Paris Climate Agreement under the Obama Administration in September of 2016. Just a year later in 2017, President Trump threatened to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement; although, the US’ official withdrawal could take up to 4 years and the US could rejoin under another administration within a month’s time. The President’s reasoning for withdrawing mainly involves the agreement’s perceived effects on US power and economic stability. According to Timmons Roberts from the Brookings Institute, the President has “developed a posture that asserted American dominance and unwillingness to be influenced by foreign government.” Similarly, writers from The Economist report that Mr. Trump claims “the pact would… [impose] a heavy economic burden on America and [intrude] on its sovereignty.” Critics of the President claim, however, that the Paris Agreement would not affect US power or economic stability as the agreement is not legally binding and every country has the freedom to choose its own standards when it joins.
Seeing that the Paris Agreement is not legally binding, there is some worry amongst political scientists regarding the impact of the document. On the one hand, the Paris Agreement brings countries together to combat a common global issue; however, if countries do not abide by their own standards, there are no legal repercussions in place to keep countries accountable for themselves or for other members. Even if the US withdraws from the Paris Agreement, who is to say that the US won’t abide by its own standards to decrease carbon emissions and focus on climate change domestically? In fact, according to Melissa Denchak from the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), “city and state officials, businesses leaders, universities, and private citizens” have taken strides towards combating climate change through their “participation in initiatives such as America’s Pledge, the United States Climate Alliance, We Are Still In, and the American Cities Climate Challenge”. Similarly, the United States Congress has already passed laws, outside of the Paris Agreement, to cut carbon pollution including the Climate Action Plan (2013), the EPA’s Clean Air Act (1963), and the Clean Power Plan (2015).
Over 1 Year Later
Over one year after the Trump Administration declared that the US would remove itself from the Paris Climate Agreement, the US and Trump Administration still face backlash that could hinder Trump in the 2020 election. Since the US cannot formally retract itself until the day after the 2020 elections, he is creating an issue for either his second term or the next president. There have been two major conferences in Germany, that took place at the Framework Convention on Climate Change, since Trump’s announcement. The US State Department has been to both of these gatherings to help collaboratively create a “rule book” for the agreement. The US has reduced its emissions by about 8%; however, other countries like Denmark have reduced emissions by 30%. That small percentage translates to an annual reduction of about 760 million metric tons, but emissions are around 7,300 million tons a year. The US’ state policies help contribute to having the highest reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The Paris Climate Agreement is a step in the right direction for international cooperation over climate change, which is a global issue. By having over 190 countries sign this agreement to combat a global issue, the agreement brings countries who are not normally allies together to work towards a common goal. By removing itself, the US’ views on this issue would align with countries like Nicaragua and Syria. The US no longer agreeing with the standpoints of the many countries creates a divide over the issue of combating global warming, which an overwhelming majority of the world’s countries deem important.
Course of Action
President Trump and his administration are very clearly opposed to being a part of the Paris Climate Agreement, but it is important to ask what they should do. One option includes avoiding membership in the accords in hopes of strengthening the domestic economy. Trump and his administration argue that membership in the accords would be costly and injurious to businesses due to strict regulations. Although Trump is very much against these regulations, many state governments in the US are continuing to uphold and pass policies that reduce their carbon emissions. Some states do this not only to help the environment, but to show their opposition to the President’s proposals. As this is not what Trump had intended, his withdrawal from the administration has encouraged some state governments and cities to create their own plans for the reduction of greenhouse gases. Due to this, Mr. Trump will most likely credit himself with any reduction of greenhouse gases in the upcoming 2020 presidential election. The US is now also one of the largest producers of natural gas in the world which creates fewer greenhouse gases than coal. This is something Trump will most likely take credit for as well.
The role of the states and their reduction of greenhouse gases is vital if the US were to remain out of the accords. Environmental action is extremely important in our world today even though the Trump administration refuses to acknowledge it. It seems extremely unlikely that the Trump administration would do a 180 and say that they will remain part of the accords, especially since they have an America first agenda. Therefore, they have few options in terms of going forward and painting a good picture for themselves prior to the 2020 elections. They will need to illustrate the benefits of remaining out of the accords more than just saying it will hurt the economy. The only hope for the US in terms of reducing their greenhouse gas emissions seems to lie with the role of states and their local policy.
The Paris Agreement is an environmental accord created in 2015 to address climate change and its negative impacts. The purpose of the agreement is to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in an effort to limit the global temperature increase in this century to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels while limiting the increase to 1.5 degrees. The make-up of the agreement requires commitment from the major emitting countries to cut their climate-altering pollution. The pact also requires developed nations to assist developing nations in their climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. By doing so, it creates a framework for transparent monitoring, reporting, and ratcheting up of countries’ individual and collective climate goals. Currently, 195 countries are committed to the pact. The last country to join is Syria. There are 179 countries (including the US for now) that have formally approved the pact. The only countries that have not joined are Russia, Turkey, and Iran.
Originally, President Obama formally entered the agreement in 2016 because it did not impose any new legal obligations on the US. This is because the US already had a number of laws trying to cut the carbon footprint. However, when President Trump was elected, he withdrew the US from the agreement in June of 2017. Trump is a climate denier and claims that climate change is a “hoax” designed by China. However, pulling out of the agreement is not as simple as Trump believes because the country has to formally be in the agreement for 3 years before they can drop out. Then, after formally announcing the intent to withdraw, that same country has to wait 1 year for the withdrawal process can be complete. This means the earliest date that US can drop out of the agreement is November 4th, 2020; the day after the presidential election.
Although Trump seeks removal from the agreement, the US has continued to participate as mandated by the UN. Also, thousands of American leaders have stepped up to fill the void of executive leadership thus showing Americans nationwide support for the Paris agreement and what it represents. Citizens have participated in many initiatives like America’s Pledge, the United States Climate Alliance, We Are Still In, and the American Cities Climate Challenge to show their support even though their current president wants no part in the agreement.
Risks of Climate Change
The Paris Agreement is a conference built upon previous meetings and agreements including the negotiations at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 and the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. The Paris agreement specifically asks countries to further increase their attention on climate change practices, aiming to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in limiting the global temperature increase by 2 degrees Celsius. Each of the 197 countries are asked to cut ‘climate-altering pollution’ while creating emission targets. Every five years, these targets are reevaluated as stronger requirements are progressively placed on countries. If the targets are not met, there are no repercussions, however, countries are given framework for monitoring and reporting of these goals. Developed nations are asked to help developing nations control their emission output, all countries are asked to limit their global temperature increase by lowering greenhouse gas emissions, and to provide framework for accountability as well as achievements for ambitious targets. This Paris Agreement is crucial; with the temperature increase of 2 degrees Celsius, it is expected for sea levels to rise, extreme temperatures to occur, exceedingly often droughts and floods, and countries at sea level to disappear. Ignoring these issues would give rise to a multitude of health and monetary costs, and in the grand scheme of things, paying for the cost of lowered emissions is significantly less than dealing with the above repercussions.
U.S. Potential Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement
The United States signed into the Paris Climate Agreement under the Obama Administration in September of 2016. Just a year later in 2017, President Trump threatened to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement; although, the US’ official withdrawal could take up to 4 years and the US could rejoin under another administration within a month’s time. The President’s reasoning for withdrawing mainly involves the agreement’s perceived effects on US power and economic stability. According to Timmons Roberts from the Brookings Institute, the President has “developed a posture that asserted American dominance and unwillingness to be influenced by foreign government.” Similarly, writers from The Economist report that Mr. Trump claims “the pact would… [impose] a heavy economic burden on America and [intrude] on its sovereignty.” Critics of the President claim, however, that the Paris Agreement would not affect US power or economic stability as the agreement is not legally binding and every country has the freedom to choose its own standards when it joins.
Seeing that the Paris Agreement is not legally binding, there is some worry amongst political scientists regarding the impact of the document. On the one hand, the Paris Agreement brings countries together to combat a common global issue; however, if countries do not abide by their own standards, there are no legal repercussions in place to keep countries accountable for themselves or for other members. Even if the US withdraws from the Paris Agreement, who is to say that the US won’t abide by its own standards to decrease carbon emissions and focus on climate change domestically? In fact, according to Melissa Denchak from the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), “city and state officials, businesses leaders, universities, and private citizens” have taken strides towards combating climate change through their “participation in initiatives such as America’s Pledge, the United States Climate Alliance, We Are Still In, and the American Cities Climate Challenge”. Similarly, the United States Congress has already passed laws, outside of the Paris Agreement, to cut carbon pollution including the Climate Action Plan (2013), the EPA’s Clean Air Act (1963), and the Clean Power Plan (2015).
Over 1 Year Later
Over one year after the Trump Administration declared that the US would remove itself from the Paris Climate Agreement, the US and Trump Administration still face backlash that could hinder Trump in the 2020 election. Since the US cannot formally retract itself until the day after the 2020 elections, he is creating an issue for either his second term or the next president. There have been two major conferences in Germany, that took place at the Framework Convention on Climate Change, since Trump’s announcement. The US State Department has been to both of these gatherings to help collaboratively create a “rule book” for the agreement. The US has reduced its emissions by about 8%; however, other countries like Denmark have reduced emissions by 30%. That small percentage translates to an annual reduction of about 760 million metric tons, but emissions are around 7,300 million tons a year. The US’ state policies help contribute to having the highest reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The Paris Climate Agreement is a step in the right direction for international cooperation over climate change, which is a global issue. By having over 190 countries sign this agreement to combat a global issue, the agreement brings countries who are not normally allies together to work towards a common goal. By removing itself, the US’ views on this issue would align with countries like Nicaragua and Syria. The US no longer agreeing with the standpoints of the many countries creates a divide over the issue of combating global warming, which an overwhelming majority of the world’s countries deem important.
Course of Action
President Trump and his administration are very clearly opposed to being a part of the Paris Climate Agreement, but it is important to ask what they should do. One option includes avoiding membership in the accords in hopes of strengthening the domestic economy. Trump and his administration argue that membership in the accords would be costly and injurious to businesses due to strict regulations. Although Trump is very much against these regulations, many state governments in the US are continuing to uphold and pass policies that reduce their carbon emissions. Some states do this not only to help the environment, but to show their opposition to the President’s proposals. As this is not what Trump had intended, his withdrawal from the administration has encouraged some state governments and cities to create their own plans for the reduction of greenhouse gases. Due to this, Mr. Trump will most likely credit himself with any reduction of greenhouse gases in the upcoming 2020 presidential election. The US is now also one of the largest producers of natural gas in the world which creates fewer greenhouse gases than coal. This is something Trump will most likely take credit for as well.
The role of the states and their reduction of greenhouse gases is vital if the US were to remain out of the accords. Environmental action is extremely important in our world today even though the Trump administration refuses to acknowledge it. It seems extremely unlikely that the Trump administration would do a 180 and say that they will remain part of the accords, especially since they have an America first agenda. Therefore, they have few options in terms of going forward and painting a good picture for themselves prior to the 2020 elections. They will need to illustrate the benefits of remaining out of the accords more than just saying it will hurt the economy. The only hope for the US in terms of reducing their greenhouse gas emissions seems to lie with the role of states and their local policy.
Bibliography
Chris Mooney, “Trump withdrew from the Paris climate deal a year ago. Here’s what has
changed,” Washington Post, June 1, 2018. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/06/01/trump-withdrew-from-the-paris-climate-plan-a-year-ago-heres-what-has-changed/?utm_term=.ac7cb16d5648.
“Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris agreement is unpopular with voters,” The
Economist, June 5, 2017. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2017/06/05/donald-trumps-withdrawal-from-the-paris-agreement-is-unpopular-with-voters.
Melissa Denchak, “Paris Climate Agreement: Everything You Need to Know,” NRDC,
December 12, 2018. https://www.nrdc.org/stories/paris-climate-agreement-everything-you-need-know.
“The Paris agreement marks an unprecedented political recognition of the risks of climate
change,” The Economist, December 12, 2015. https://www.economist.com/international/2015/12/12/the-paris-agreement-marks-an-unprecedented-political-recognition-of-the-risks-of-climate-change.
Timmons Roberts, “One year since Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement,”
Brookings, June 1, 2018. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/planetpolicy/2018/06/01/one-year-since-trumps-withdrawal-from-the-paris-climate-agreement/.
“U.S. Leads in Greenhouse Gas Reductions, but Some States Are Falling Behind,”
Environmental and Energy Study Institute, March 27, 2018. https://www.eesi.org/articles/view/u.s.-leads-in-greenhouse-gas-reductions-but-some-states-are-falling-behind.
I thought that this was a very interesting memo. It has become clear that climate change is a real issue that needs to be addressed by the entire world. While I do think that it might not be the best idea for the United States to pull out of the agreement, I like the fact that it has at least forced new meetings to discuss how to advance the agreement. Creating some sort of disciplinary system to ensure that everyone will play their role in reducing emissions is critical. Overall, I thought that this memo did a great job of laying out all the benefits as well as the shortcomings of the agreement.
ReplyDeleteClimate change is a significant security issue and it is important for the United States to create more long term solutions than short term solutions. It can be difficult to change someone like Donald Trump's opinion on climate change even though there is evidence that proves that climate change is a security threat and it will only get worse unless it is addressed as soon as possible. As a result, I completely agree that it is up to the role of the states and communities to influence their legislatures to take action on the issue. Also, it is important to address that underdeveloped states are likely to have fewer resources and less stamina to deal with climate change. For example, states like Alabama are facing environmental racism. Overall, I really enjoyed your memo.
ReplyDelete- Glendy Alvarez
This is a great issue and one of vast importance. As we have boatloads of scientific evidence to prove the existence of global warming the the vast crisis that come along with it. You all did a great job in illustrating the issues at hand and showing a few paths for the future. Also, I had no idea that there was a time requirement barring President Trump from exiting the Paris Accords until Nov. 4th 2020. This was complete news to me because when it was a trending topic the issue seemed to be null and void with nothing left to do but shake our educated heads at Trump's decision. At least now there is time to figure out future opportunities for emissions reduction and holding all globally accountable for such.
ReplyDelete-Shannon
The Trump administration's disregard for international deals that he claims hurts the US economically is interesting to watch play out. As the effects of climate change increase with time, future presidents will not be able to argue that friendly climate policies hurt the economy and therefore should not become law because climate change itself will negatively hurt economic activity. For those that are environmentally conscience, the 2020 election will be very important. The memo accurately outlines the situation faced by both viewpoints.
ReplyDelete-Adam Miller
This was a very interesting memo, as I feel that many know about Trump's administration pulling out of the Paris Agreement, but not about there being a time restriction that would not let us leave the agreement until November 2020. This information gives a sort of hope that the U.S. will still be a part of the Paris Agreement because climate change is a crucial issue, that can not be disregarded. Climate change is a global issue that can only be solved by the global community and their commitments to lowering greenhouse gas emissions. That being said, it seems unlikely that President Trump's opinion about the importance of climate change will alter. Therefore, I agree with your point that it is up to U.S. states and their local governments to combat climate change.
ReplyDeleteThe topic of climate change is a critical topic to discuss currently as the President does not prioritize it enough. Before reading this memo, I was unaware that the United States couldn't formally pull out of the agreement until 2020. I think that climate change deserves more attention from the President, and I find it interesting how he reacts to such a critical topic that is affecting the world. Climate change will continue to have adverse effects on the Earth for many years to come unless we act now. The International community is coming together to find more solutions to combat climate change, and I find it interesting how the current administration is addressing the issue. The economic burden of climate change will become worse if the United States does not take more action against it, so it makes me wonder why the president thinks the agreement would be too 'costly.' Overall the memo was interesting to read and thoroughly explained the Trump administration action to want to pull out of the deal.
ReplyDelete-Hillary
I thought this was a great memo, as climate change remains a critical topic given the fragility of the earth. Further, I was unaware that the earliest date that the US could formally drop from the agreement would be after the next Presidential cycle which gives me hope that the climate will not be withdrawn from by the US. I believe that if President Trump wants America to be dominant in all aspects of the world, this should include dominance in environmental and climate change policy.
ReplyDeleteI think this memo covered a pressing issue since the disastrous effects of climate change are something we cannot avoid, even if the Trump administration believes that it is a hoax. Through not being in the Paris Agreement, as the memo mentions, we will be aligning ourselves with countries that do not reflect America's interests. I like that you mentioned that while Trump is against the agreement, that individual cities and states are taking it upon themselves to combat climate change. While the content of the memo provides a great amount of information on the subject, one issue that I found was that the executive summary appeared to be too long. Some of the information in this section is repetition from other subsections of the memo.
ReplyDeleteOverall I thought this was a great memo that was easy to follow and condensed a complex topic into understandable subheadings. Not only does the Paris Agreement hold great international importance, but it could serve as a major campaign focus for climate-conscious voters heading to the poll the same year the United States is scheduled to formally exit the accord. You highlighted that since the Paris Agreement is not legally binding there are no repercussions if the framework is violated. It would be interesting to expand on this and include more information about how the U.S. decision to withdraw has affected other states’ commitment to the accord, especially considering our class discussions examining the role of the United States on the world stage.
ReplyDeleteI think this memo covered a very important topic in the world currently. I think it is important that we accept that climate change is real and continue to do our part as a country before it is too late. I think this memo did a good job of covering this and explaining where America stands on the Paris Accords. Overall I thought you did a good job explaining this in detail and making it understandable.
ReplyDeleteThe Paris Agreement and the topic of Climate Change has been extremely critical and prominent in the world today. This memo did an effective job of informing us of the current situation, outlining the events that have transpired, and describing the opinions and views of current parties involved. Like many of you have said, it is extremely vital for all people to accept the fact that climate change is not a myth and to understand the importance of doing our part in saving Earth before its too late. In my opinion, it would be very detrimental to the movement of ending climate change if the United States pulls out of the Paris Agreement. Despite Trump's comments, I think in the end the U.S. will not pull out of the Paris Agreement due to them realizing that the negative effects of this action greatly outweigh any benefit that can potentially occur
ReplyDelete-Marc Brunelle
I completely agree to this memo in the sense that climate change is a huge global issue and will affect the United States in many aspects. I took an environmental science in which we learned about climate change therefore I find the overlap with politics very interesting. The most surprising thing to me throughout the memo is that the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement could take up to 4 years and the US could rejoin under another administration within a month’s time. Therefore our next president is going to take a huge role within the United States policy over climate change in their first few months as president. Overall the memo was very informative and will done.
ReplyDeleteJoslyn janeczek
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis is a very interesting memo that touches on a crucial issue that the international community faces. I think President Trump's desire to leave the Paris Agreement posses a symbolic threat to the success of the agreement: If one of the world's greatest powers won't participate in the agreement why should other countries? I also think President Trump's criticisms of the Paris Agreement are especially flawed considering that the agreement is not actually legally binding. I am curious to see what will happen in the future and how the next US President will respond to the agreement.
ReplyDeleteInteresting summary, however you seem to neglect discussing the specific commitments undertaken by the United States under the agreement. In addition, a major part of the topic relates to the relationship between developing countries and developed countries. Allowances will have to be made to recently industrialized and industrializing countries as they work towards improving their standards of living. Part of the agreement involves establishing a fund to help facilitate this, towards which the United States is a contributor. Should the United States prioritize assisting developing countries as they transition to low-carbon economies?
ReplyDelete