Memo 2: Russian Hacking in 2016 US Elections
To: POL245: American Foreign Policy
From: Kelsea Albertson, Dan Curran, Talia Guglietta, Samantha Landry, and Kennedy Muise
Blanchfield, Mike. “NATO expert warns of Russian meddling in Canada’s 2019 election: ‘Democracy is in trouble’”. The Canadian Press, 27 Feb. 2018. https://globalnews.ca/news/4049792/canada-2019-election-russia-meddling-nato
From: Kelsea Albertson, Dan Curran, Talia Guglietta, Samantha Landry, and Kennedy Muise
Date: March 17, 2019
RE: Russian Hacking in 2016 US Elections
Executive Summary
Russian hacks conducted in the US throughout 2016 has caused much concern about cybersecurity issues for the US and other Western democracies. Similarly, it has sparked increased cybersecurity protection mechanisms created by the Department of Homeland Security. According to a report by CNN, US Intelligence Agencies have detected that Russian hackers meddled in the 2016 US presidential election by releasing private DNC documents, infiltrating GOP computers, adding to fake news sources and Pro-Trump propaganda ads on social media platforms, and targeting voting systems in up to 21 states. While the intent of Russian meddling differs amongst sources, the fact that Russia is interfering at all generates a great deal of concern for US security and has prompted bipartisan cooperation to secure future elections and to effectively stop further cyberattacks. The 2016 cyber attacks are not the first of its kind, however. The Washington Post reports that Russia began its first wave of “election-meddling” after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, particularly in post-Soviet states such as Ukraine. More recently, Russia has shifted to meddle in the elections of Western democracies, including many NATO members such as Germany, France, Canada, and the US. While these attacks do not seem to have drastically changed the outcomes of democratic elections in these countries, there is evidence that Russian hacking will remain sustained and continuous and should be a serious point of concern for the US in its upcoming elections.
Russian hacks conducted in the US throughout 2016 has caused much concern about cybersecurity issues for the US and other Western democracies. Similarly, it has sparked increased cybersecurity protection mechanisms created by the Department of Homeland Security. According to a report by CNN, US Intelligence Agencies have detected that Russian hackers meddled in the 2016 US presidential election by releasing private DNC documents, infiltrating GOP computers, adding to fake news sources and Pro-Trump propaganda ads on social media platforms, and targeting voting systems in up to 21 states. While the intent of Russian meddling differs amongst sources, the fact that Russia is interfering at all generates a great deal of concern for US security and has prompted bipartisan cooperation to secure future elections and to effectively stop further cyberattacks. The 2016 cyber attacks are not the first of its kind, however. The Washington Post reports that Russia began its first wave of “election-meddling” after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, particularly in post-Soviet states such as Ukraine. More recently, Russia has shifted to meddle in the elections of Western democracies, including many NATO members such as Germany, France, Canada, and the US. While these attacks do not seem to have drastically changed the outcomes of democratic elections in these countries, there is evidence that Russian hacking will remain sustained and continuous and should be a serious point of concern for the US in its upcoming elections.
NATO’s Response
NATO’s response to Russian hackers has left many members in a confused state, especially trying to understand how the hacks work and how to prevent future attacks. Russia has been a cybersecurity threat since the 1990’s, starting with the Chechen Separatists and then moving to low-risk strategic moves that they were able to deny responsibility. By keeping operating costs low, they had further success in more attacks, with the 2007 Estonia cyber attack and the 2015 Ukrainian power plant attack discussed in class. Russia’s success has stemmed from hacking into computer network operations, electronic interference (power grids), and psychological and disinformation campaigns (elections). Not only are these hacks taking information but they’re also leaving behind a mass of chaos. (Jankowski 2018).
NATO did not use cyber language officially until the Prague Summit in 2002; almost a 10-year gap from when Russia first began their cyberattacks. At the Warsaw Summit in 2016, NATO declared cyberspace as “a domain of operations where NATO needs to defend as it does for air, sea, and land” (Jankowski 2018). At Warsaw, a cyber defense pledge was adopted along with putting pressure on allies to invest in resources relating to cyber defense. Information is crucial and therefore needs to be shared to keep all NATO members up to date and ready for any future attacks. In 2018, at the Brussels Summit, the cyberspace operations center was created and would be fully staffed and functional by 2023. It was decided here too that NATO would not use offensive cyber operations, but individual states could do as they please. Looking into the private sector could prove useful too, hiring those who have knowledge and expertise of this relatively new style of offense. NATO still needs a clear-cut cyber deterrence strategy and how to deal with all aspects of cyber attacks – spoofing, switching tactics (harder to track), disguised locations, etc. (Jankowski, 2018).
Combatting Russian Election Interference
Senior Trump Administration officials warned there was a chance of hacking happening again in the 2018 Midterm elections. In order to combat this security threat, the Department of Homeland Security created a council to coordinate the response to threats, and the department offers security scans of equipment and other services to election officials nationwide (Barnes & Wines 2018). Many states have set up centers and taken extra precautions to secure their ballots. There has also been a new standard enacted for voting equipment to limit the threat of hackers.
Senior Trump Administration officials warned there was a chance of hacking happening again in the 2018 Midterm elections. In order to combat this security threat, the Department of Homeland Security created a council to coordinate the response to threats, and the department offers security scans of equipment and other services to election officials nationwide (Barnes & Wines 2018). Many states have set up centers and taken extra precautions to secure their ballots. There has also been a new standard enacted for voting equipment to limit the threat of hackers.
Additionally, intelligence agencies have been permeating foreign servers to monitor the Russian groups involved in the attacks. The agencies also try to check on hacking campaigns as soon as they start. They have been working closely with technology companies; however, not much of this has been released. Mr. Coats, the Director of National Intelligence, has determined the threat of hacking as a top priority of national security.
Effects on the 2020 Presidential Election
Since Russia has already been accused of hacking the 2016 presidential elections in the US, and NATO researchers are assuming that Russia will attempt to interfere in the 2019 federal elections in Canada because that would serve the Kremlin’s purpose of helping destabilize the military alliance, there is an incredibly high chance that the 2020 elections will also be interfered with. In fact, it should be anticipated because Russia has also attempted to disrupt votes in Germany, France, the Netherlands, and the Czech Republic.
Janis Sarts, the director of the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence who testified last year at the U.S. Senate intelligence committee about Russian interference, commented multiple times on what this cyber warfare means for democracy. Sarts stated, “the moment somebody can question the integrity of the elections and the election result, democracy is in trouble.” This goes for all countries with democracy. The government is supposed to protect the democratic institutions and because of the cyber attacks, the trust is diminishing.
Future Implications
Going forward, the Trump administration and other security agencies have a few options regarding the hackings that occurred. They can undergo immense increases in monitoring, security, and conducting cyber attacks on their own. The US is one of the supreme powers in the world concerning cyber capabilities and questions need to be asked about whether or not the meddling with elections constitutes offensive cyber responses. These may be interpreted in a way that could only threaten to increase the divide between the US and Russia. The increased efficiency and innovations that are made available through the worldwide web also put the US in a vulnerable position. As these vulnerabilities cannot be pushed to the back of the security agenda, it is difficult to understand what way the US will respond.
Going forward, the Trump administration and other security agencies have a few options regarding the hackings that occurred. They can undergo immense increases in monitoring, security, and conducting cyber attacks on their own. The US is one of the supreme powers in the world concerning cyber capabilities and questions need to be asked about whether or not the meddling with elections constitutes offensive cyber responses. These may be interpreted in a way that could only threaten to increase the divide between the US and Russia. The increased efficiency and innovations that are made available through the worldwide web also put the US in a vulnerable position. As these vulnerabilities cannot be pushed to the back of the security agenda, it is difficult to understand what way the US will respond.
Works Cited:
“2016 Presidential Campaign Hacking Fast Facts.” CNN, 24 Nov. 2018. https://www.cnn.com/2016/12/26/us/2016-presidential-campaign-hacking-fast-facts/index.html
“Twelve Russians charged with US 2016 election hack.” BBC News, 13 July 2018. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44825345
Way, Lucan Ahmed and Adam Casey. “Russia Has Been Meddling in Foreign Elections for Decades. Has it Made a Difference?”. Washington Post, 8 Jan. 2018. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/01/05/russia-has-been-meddling-in-foreign-elections-for-decades-has-it-made-a-difference/?utm_term=.c3baa41ea062
Wines, Michael and Julian E. Barnes. “How the U.S. is Fighting Russian Election Interference”. New York Times, 2 Aug. 2018. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/02/us/politics/russia-election-interference.html
I feel like this is a very important issue to focus on as we draw closure toward the 2020 elections and attempt to secure our voting system. I think the memo puts this very important issue into perspective and sheds light on how the international community responded to this issue. Going forward, I feel like it is important to ensure that the executive summary is precise yet brief. Also, I feel like there are some minor formatting issues that will be easy to fix for the next memo.
ReplyDeleteOverall I thought this was a great memo that addressed a very timely topic. One thing I would've liked to see in this memo would be a little more background on Soviet election meddling, especially as it pertains to other states. In the executive summary you mentioned legitimacy issues with elections throughout the 1990s in Ukraine, demonstrating that Russian interference is not a new phenomenon, but rather only new to the United States and other NATO allies. A subheading comparing how Russian election meddling has evolved would be particularly interesting and relevant to your overall argument, and would likely help in creating future courses of action for the United States to take.
ReplyDeleteI think this memo gave a great critique on NATO outlook on Russian interference. While NATO stresses the fear they have over Russia`s tampering they have failed to define what they see as cyber concerns. They also refuse to define what cyber actions warrant a response. I think it would be interesting to look into the current extent of possible Russian activity through social media accounts. Are the accused actions still occurring or have there been effective responses from these social media platforms?
ReplyDeleteI think you did a good job covering an important current issue we are facing. I think it is very important that we continue to look into cyber security especially for the next election to avoid further interference. As time goes on it seems like this issue will only increase so getting ahead of it is very crucial if we would like to stay in control of our leaders being elected.
ReplyDeleteOverall I thought this was a very well done memo given the recent completion of the Mueller report regarding the Trump campaigns interaction with the Russian Government. I believe that in addition to strengthening both our infrastructure for elections and overall cyber infrastructure, the US must take further actions in rallying the international community to prevent this problem from spreading further into more countries elections.
ReplyDeleteI really enjoyed reading your memo. I agree that cyber security is a security threat that the government must focus its time on. I think it would have been interesting to include the importance of having government officials who have a background on cyber security to find solutions to prevent another hacking in the future. Also, it is important for the United States government to find long term solutions instead of short term solutions because cyber security is an issue that will continue to occur.
ReplyDelete- Glendy Alvarez
The memo did an outstanding job at covering a controversial topic that is occurring and was very enjoyable to read. It is important that the United States continues to put major emphasis on cyber security, especially with the 2020 election in the future. Cyber security is a threat that is always evolving and it is critical that the US remains one step ahead.
ReplyDeleteAs technology is integrated further into the politician world, the need for cyber security is immense. Your memo did a good job of organizing the material in a logical way. The future implications of election security has much significance. Any further cyber attacks in the elections of 2020 can have huge political ramifications.
ReplyDelete-Adam Miller
This memo does a nice job taking the question of cyber security explored in the class discussion about Ukraine and applying it to the United States’ own threats. I think it is interesting that NATO has agreed to apply their military defense agreement to cyberspace, which may be indicative of a future shift in how we define security. It will also be interesting to see how Russian hacking may advance: If they have potential to interfere in elections in NATO countries, can they also destabilize these countries power systems like they did in Ukraine?
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ReplyDeleteIt has become very apparent that technology and the internet can have a monumental impact on politics. The memo does a great job of showing this, by explaining the significance of Russian hacking and interference in countries democratic processes. There are many new challenges that the world faces because of technology and its ability to increase global interaction. It is imperative, therefore, that the U.S. and other states develop proper security measures that are long term because, in the future, cyber concerns will only increase as technology advances.
This memo does a great job of explaining the Russians hacking the 2016 election and future implications. The only thing I would've like to have seen would have been more of an expansion on the importance of cybersecurity, and how the security can become increased. I really like how the memo included the perspective of NATO, as it is essential to address. I think the hacking is an important issue due to the upcoming 2020 Presidential Election, and I think more of an effort needs to be made in cybersecurity to prevent more hacks, as other things in the future like classified information could be hacked making it more of a threat to national security.
ReplyDeleteYou all did a great job with this memo. It was very informative about the Russia hacking of the American 2016 Presidential election. It is incredible that the rise of the technological intelligence has caused both extreme positive and negative effects on American democracy. The positive is obviously easier access to ballot and more productive voting counts, but that it quickly at stake when outside intelligence interrupts that. Something that moving forward, NATO and the US Department of Security will have to be ahead of and ready to intervene.
ReplyDeleteShannon Sylvester
DeleteI think this memo was a great topic to talk about, it has been heavily talked about in the news but I do not have a lot of knowledge about the topic so I found it very useful. I thought it was interesting that According to a report by CNN, US Intelligence Agencies have detected that Russian hackers meddled in the 2016 US presidential election by releasing private DNC documents, infiltrating GOP computers, adding to fake news sources and Pro-Trump propaganda ads on social media platforms, and targeting voting systems in up to 21 states. I did not know that it was in 21 states which is a portion of this countries voting system. I think cybersecurity is one of the main issues in the United States and for NATO. This group did a great job with laying out the problem here.
ReplyDeleteJoslyn janeczek
Good summary of the topic, however you might have further described current U.S. cyber policy. Which agencies, for example, are responsible for cyber security and defense? You might have also used this angle to shape your recommendations. Does the U.S. need a single-purpose cyber law enforcement agency? Should the U.S. establish a "cyber force" within the DoD? - Ian MacLeod
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